PA state working with data models of coronavirus to analyze mitigation efforts

Written by on April 1, 2020

PA state working with data models of coronavirus to analyze mitigation efforts

By Tyler Pratt

April 1, 2020

Nearly half the counties in Pennsylvania have been issued mandatory stay-at-home orders. This brings the statewide total to 33 —including nearly the entire eastern portion of the state.

The new total number of cases of COVID-19 for Pennsylvania is nearly 5,000, with more than 500 in the Lehigh Valley. Many are wondering when the virus will hit its peak here. 

State Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine says there’s not an easy answer. 

“Modeling of infectious diseases is very complex, many different factors and many different data points are considered,” said Levine.

The state is working with the University of Pittsburgh to update its current data model and is still awaiting results. The university released a version last week that showed without social distancing orders currently in place, hospitals in the state would get hit fast and hard with hundreds of thousands of cases. It also shows current efforts may be helping, but that the state may still see as many as 100,000 cases per day down the line. 


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